FX Headlines: Loonie Jumps Following Bank of Canada Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate on hold at 1.00 percent, noting that any further rate increases would fall in line with keeping prices pressures “consistent” at the “2 percent inflation target.” Nonetheless, Governor Mark Carney noted that some stimulus could be “eventually withdrawn,” sending the Loonie higher against all the other major currencies following the release.

Fundamental Headlines

• Euro-Area Inflation Slowed in May - Bloomberg

• Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Decrease to Eight-Year Low - Bloomberg

• U.S. Stock Futures Jump After Memorial Day Break - Marketwatch

• Berlin Considers a Shift on Greek Debt - WSJ

• Lagarde Vows to Continue IMF Reforms - WSJ

NZDUSD: The Kiwi continued its remarkable run in the overnight session, jumping to an all-time high against the U.S. Dollar, after gaining over 11 percent the past 3-months. A report showed that business confidence climbed to a 12-month high, from 14.2 in April to 38.3 in May. Accordingly, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand was forced to lower interest rates to 2.50 percent following the earthquake in Christchurch, the antipodean economy has absolutely flourished, sending speculators into net-long positions exposing themselves to further Kiwi strength. In fact, the strength of the Kiwi has helped contained price pressures in New Zealand, similar to how a strong Loonie has tempered inflation in Canada. That being said, the Kiwi is likely to continue to appreciate, as if price pressures begin to build, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates, attracting more capital inflows into the country.

Taking a look at price action, the Kiwi-Dollar has been moving essentially parabolic since mid-March, appreciating slowly but steady, from as low as 0.7108 on March 17 to an all-time high of 0.8262 today. The NZD/USD pair has yet to reach the necessary technical boundaries to consider the pair at an extreme positioning that one would call for a short play. The RSI is continuing to rise, at 69 now, just below the overbought level. The MACD Histogram is still trending higher, and looks yet to have peaked, with the differential now at 27. However, the Slow Stochastic oscillator looks to be near its apex, with the %K at 94, and the %D at 92. Still, even in the face of risk-aversion, the Kiwi has surged higher, and the only possible reason that the Kiwi would decline would be as traders take profits off the table following the NZD/USD pair’s incredible run. For now, it is hard to advocate fighting the Kiwi, despite how appetizing the current technicals appear.

Hard Week for Dollar as US Economy Stalls

The US dollar dropped this week against most major currencies as the macroeconomic data was terrible, reducing attractiveness of the currency as a safe asset.
The global economic situation wasn’t very favorable for the dollar. The influence of the European crisis on market sentiments weakened somewhat, higher-yielding assets are again in favor of investors, erasing appeal of safe currencies.
Without the support from outside of the US the dollar could only rely on the new from America. And the news were really. Virtually every sector of the US economy, be it manufacturing of the housing market, performed very bad. Some analysts think that the reasons for the economic slowdown were temporary, like the fuel prices hike last month, and soon we’ll see again evidences of the economic recovery in the US. For now, though, the greenback remains week.
EUR/USD opened at 1.4124, slid during the week to 1.3969, but rebounded and closed at 1.4301. USD/CHF slumped to 0.8489 from 0.8790, while NZD/USD rallied to 81.88 from 0.7933.

USD/CAD closed at 0.9759 near its opening price of 0.9740, following the advance to the weekly high of 0.9815. Canada’s economy is too closely tied to the economy of the US, the nation’s biggest trading partner, to allow its currency to profit from demand for riskier assets.

F

Forex Signals

Whether you are a beginner or a seasoned trader, we have a service to fit your needs. Do you have a hard time understanding when to get in the market, or is your exit points that need help? There are hundreds of forex signals services on the market, but most are not worth a dime. We only work with the best. We screen them with the strictest parameters – ensuring their performance is real. Our latest review on Oracle Trader has given hope to 1000′s of trader’s who have been struggling.
These signal providers may send signals by e-mail, voice, cell phone, or a live trading room. We will provide you with a list of the best Forex services available to best suit your trading needs.
Some traders prefer an auto trade type of system which does the trading for you, like FX-System Center, an excellent way to go. We work with a number of providers of auto-trade services which include state of the art software that will execute trades in the Forex market for you. You can learn to trade many different styles throughout the trading day. You can join live chat sessions with live calls in voice chat rooms with professional traders and learn how to trade the Forex market yourself. The options are all available, and now you know where to look.

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The possibility of China stepping up European bond purchases and easing risk aversion on the back of rises in Asian shares propelled the euro higher in Asia Thursday, but concerns over the Greek debt crisis have continued to unsettle investors and traders, limiting further gains in the single currency.
The euro earlier climbed after Wang Yong, a professor at the People's Bank of China's training institute in Zhengzhou, Henan province, wrote in the Shanghai Securities News that China should expand its purchases of euro-zone sovereign debt and should increase direct investment into Europe.
"The euro rose on this China-related news," said Yoshiko Takayasu, manager of foreign exchange sales at the Royal Bank of Canada in Tokyo. On top of this, she said rises in the Asian stock market also helped the euro advance.
"The market hasn't changed to a risk-taking mode, but the risk-averse trend that dominated yesterday was mitigated," she added.
At 0350 GMT, the euro was at $1.4146 from $1.4086 in late New York Wednesday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y81.89 from Y81.96 while the euro was at Y115.84 from at Y115.45. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was at 75.638 from 75.902.
Looking ahead, Takayasu said the Greek debt problem remains "a considerably unsettling factor and the prospect for any resolution to the issue isn't in sight, with opinions between the troika --IMF, the EU, and the ECB --remaining split" on how to bail out Greece, she said.
Takayasu said the market will keep a close eye on the finance ministers' meeting in the euro zone as well as the Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting expected to be held in mid-June but there is uncertainty if they can come up with a concrete plan then.
Meanwhile, speculation of a rate hike by the ECB later this year was reignited by remarks by European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark who wrote in an article for the International Economy journal published Wednesday that the goal of preventing a financial meltdown has been achieved and "the time has come to return to normal."
Recent U.S. economic indicators showing sluggishness including Thursday's durable goods orders for April --which dropped 3.6% compared with a forecast of 2.1% decline --have raised the views that the Federal Reserve will put off raising interest rates until the first quarter or the second quarter, 2012, Takayasu said, adding that these in turn has supported the euro against the dollar above $1.400.
The dollar remained trapped in its recent range against the the yen, although bids are getting higher partly due to buying interest from Japanese importers and long-term based overseas investors, traders said.
The Australian dollar gained against the yen after better-than-expected Australian capital spending data. Private new capital spending on buildings and equipment rose 3.4% in the first quarter, compared to a 2.8% rise forecast.
Still, the outlook for the Aussie isn't as certain as before, said Teppei Ino, senior analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "There is an emerging view that China's economy may be slowing down a little bit partly because of its tightening measures, and China is Australia's important trader partner," he added.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 23:50 EDT / 0350 GMT 
 
                         Latest     Previous   %Chg   Daily   Daily    %Chg 
                                    2150 GMT          High    Low      12/31 
USD/JPY Yen              81.85-88   81.94-99   -0.11  82.16   81.77    +0.78 
EUR/USD Euro             1.4149-52  1.4087-91  +0.44  1.4175  1.4065   +5.83 
GBP/USD Sterling         1.6312-16  1.6275-77  +0.23  1.6334  1.6270   +4.63 
USD/CHF Swiss Franc      0.8713-17  0.8725-31  -0.14  0.8734  0.8703  -18.57 
USD/CAD Canadian Dlr     0.9766-69  0.9770-77  -0.04  0.9794  0.9753   -2.63 
AUD/USD Australian Dlr   1.0575-78  1.0528-31  +0.45  1.0602  1.0505   +8.06 
NZD/USD New Zealand Dlr  0.8062-66  0.7975-80  +1.09  0.8073  0.7961   +3.53 
 
Euro Rate 
 
EUR/JPY Yen              115.81-85  115.45-50  +0.31  116.03  115.36   +6.65 

Forex Trading System

South African Rand Stops Decline as Commodities Recover

The South African rand gained today, ending the two-daydrop versus the US dollar, after commodities recovered and on speculation that policy makers will take measures to deal with the European debt crisis.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials rose 1 percent, following the yesterday’s decline by 1.7 percent, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 0.4 percent. South Africa’s benchmark stock index gained after two days of losses. Greece confirmed budget cuts and increased asset sales to avoid default.

USD/ZAR fell to 6.9710 from 6.9990 today as of 13:35 GMT after it jumped yesterday as high as 7.0180

New Home Sales in the United States crushed economists’ expectations for April, surging by 7.3 percent from March. The median estimate according to a Bloomberg News survey called for new home sales to remain unchanged. After the release, the Commerce Department revised March new home sales up to 301,000 from the previously reported 300,000 rate. The gains last month represent the strongest annual pace since April 2010, and represent the best performance the housing market has had this year so far. At an annual pace of 323,000 in April, it appears that improving job prospects may finally be boosting a housing market that has lagged the broader recovery in the United States. The data is particularly encouraging, considering housing prices are up 4.6 percent from a year earlier, data in today’s report showed.

Source: Bloomberg

While foreclosures continue to depress homes’ values, there could continue to be a rebound inexisting home sales, as the softer prices have made previously owned properties more attractive. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in twenty metropolitan areas confirmed this notion, which was down 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the group’s report showed last month.

Yet, there is still reason for concern. The supply of homes as the current sales rate dropped to 6.5 month’s worth in April, from 7.2 in March, the fewest since record keeping began in 1963. Last week, the Commerce Department released a report showing that housing starts fell by 11.0 percent in April to a 523,000 annual pace, the second-weakest reading since the low in April 2009.

In the minutes following the release, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index slid, as the prospects of a stronger U.S. economy boosted risk appetite. Before the release, the Dollar Index was at 9717.78. By 14:15 GMT, the index has fallen as low as 9699.78.

Pound Gains vs. Euro as Dale Talks About Higher Rates

The Great Britain pound gained today versus the euro as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England Spencer Dale spoke about necessity to increase the lending rates, despite the problems of the UK economy. The currency slipped against the US dollar.

Dale said in an interview with the Financial Times:

I’m not at all confident that the recovery has taken hold and will definitely power away. However, I’m even more worried about what’s going on in terms of inflation.

The UK inflation accelerated to 4.5 percent in April, making analysts think that the BoE will be forced to raise the main rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent by the end of this year.

EUR/GBP dropped to 0.8679 from 0.08705 today as of 10:06 GMT, following the earlier drop to 0.8663. Meanwhile, GBP/USD went down to 1.6119 from 1.6222.

Chilean Peso Falls as US Economy Reduce Risk Appetite

The Chilean peso fell today as the economic data suggested that the US economy is slowing, therefore reducing demand from investors for higher-yielding, but riskier, currencies.
The economic report showed that the US housing market and manufacturing industry slowed last month. The global economy also doesn’t provide reasons for optimism. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials fell for the third consecutive session. Stocks also declined.
USD/CLP rose from 471.4500 to 473.2500 as of 16:20 GMT today, following the advance to 475.9500.

JAPAN DATA: The Cabinet Office says it will release..

JAPAN DATA: The Cabinet Office says it will release the
government’s monthly economic report for May on Tuesday, May 24, at a
time to be set later. The government revised down its overall economic
assessment in April, for the first time since October 2010, saying,
“Although the economy was picking up, it shows weakness recently, due to
impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake.” Some data have shown
weakness of the economy. Industrial production plunged a seasonally
adjusted 15.3% m/m in March, posting the largest drop on record.
 The Euro still looks heavy” said Koji Fukaya, director of global foreign exchange at Credit Suisse Securities in Tokyo. “If we see a further drop in commodities, the euro could make a try to $1.40", adding that "some investors seem interested in buying the Euro at levels around $1.40” the analyst said. Additionally, the 1.39-1.40 region is regarded as a significant area for the euro, since there has been talks of sizeable stop losses offers around the level, plus a series of support levels are clustered there, including the 100DMA.

<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="auto" height="350" width="670" allowtransparency="true" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" src="http://ecal.forexpros.com/e_cal.php?duration=daily&top_text_color=FFFFFF&top_bg=0452A1&header_text_color=333333&header_bg=D0DFE6&bg1=FFFFFF&bg2=F1F5F8&border=CEDBEB" align="center"></iframe><br /><span style="font-size: 11px;color: #333333;text-decoration: none;">Live Economic Calendar Powered by the <a href="http://www.forexpros.com/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 11px;color: #06529D; font-weight: bold;" class="underline_link">Forex</a> Trading Portal Forexpros.com</span>

Forex: EUR/USD – Another weekly slump
Fri, May 13 2011, 20:24 GMT | FXstreet.com
EmailPrint Share 10 1Related News
•Forex: EUR/USD – Another weekly slump
•ForexLive US wrap: Restructuring fears intensify
•Forex Flash: USD outlook mixed – Wells Fargo
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) – The Euro was the worst performer among majors in the market for the second week in a row. EUR/USD fell 270 pips after plummeting 520 pips on the previous week. The pair reversed sharply on Friday and tumbled from 1.4340 and bottomed at 1.4065, hitting a 6-week low. The European currency finished on Friday hovering around 1.4100 weakened by risk appetite and worries about debt problems in Greece.

“The Euro has been moving in lock-step with equities recently (as well as oil) and so the risk-off trade was in full effect as the EUR/USD fell through the 1.41 area. With lingering concerns about what happens with Greece yet to be decided by EU members, traders do not want to hold EUR”, said Nick Nasad, fundamental analyst at FXtimes.

Regarding Eurozone debt problems, the Danske Bank affirmed in its weekly report: “Greek finances seem unsustainable, and the risk of restructuring – which could lead to losses in the European banking sector and a sell-off of EUR – is ever-present. However, our euro economists expect further loans to be extended to Greece, so avoiding or at least deferring such a scenario”. They anticipate some normalization of the EUR risk premium in the coming months. “In this context, it should also be noted that our short-term model for EUR/USD, which is based partly on relative interest rates, gives an equilibrium exchange rate above 1.46”.


.
EUR/USD May 14 at 17:32 GMT
1.4098/04 (-0.12%)
H 1.4121 L 1.4101
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3885 1.3920 1.3955 1.4229 1.4265 1.4300
[?]Trend Index [?]OB/OS Index
Neutral Extremely Oversold
Data updated on May 13 at 18:45 GMT (15-minute timeframe)

1D1M3M1Y.

The dollar fell to a 15-year low against the yen on Monday, drawing ever closer to its postwar record low of 79.75 yen set in 1995 as traders took a weekend G20 statement as a green light for continued dollar weakness

Read More

The dollar dropped to as low as 80.65 yen JPY= on trading platform EBS, its weakest level since 1995 and down about 0.9 percent on the day.

The market is wary that Japanese authorities might intervene to defend the 80.00 yen level to prevent the dollar from reaching the record low, after they stepped in to sell yen on Sept.15 for the first time in more than six years.

Since then, however, the dollar has continued to fall across the board as the market has anticipated a second round of quantitative easing expected from the Federal Reserve later this year, possibly at its next meeting on Nov.2-3.

Forex History

FOREX HISTORY
Forex stands for the foreign exchange market. In the foreign exchange market, currencies from one country are exchanged for the currencies of other countries. These exchanges are usually made with large amounts of currencies, the main bulk of the trading is done by large organizations. Forex history developed over many years to the become the largest financial market in the world today. Through World War I, foreign currencies were based value of gold. Until this period, the value of paper money was represented by the value of the countryÕs currency compared to gold. Forex history truly begins after World War II, with an increase of the problems of relying on the value of gold as each countryÕs currency. The founding of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 important to Forex history. It created a system of currency value that was based upon the dollar, the value of the dollar was supposed to be fixed on the rate of gold in order to establish a stable market. The purpose of this agreement was to avoid an international monetary crisis, as what had led to World War I and played a major role in the outbreak of World War II. The Bretton Woods Agreement was important in the development of Forex history and it lasted through the 1970Õs and finally established controls over the value of currencies. With this agreement countries were to keep the value of the currencies close to the value of the dollar and the rate of gold. This agreement also prohibited countries from devaluating their currencies in order to have an advantage in the foreign market. These guidelines served to control the currency of the world for almost the next thirty years of Forex history. In 1971 it was seen that this was not a reliable way to stabilize the currency of the world. When the U.S. dollar itself devalued against the value of gold. Important to Forex history was when The Bretton Woods Agreement was then abolished.

The U.S. dollar ceased to be what other foreign currencies would measure the value of their currency by. The dollar became the measure of foreign currency a few years later, again the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market. The U.S. dollar again made its way to importance in Forex history. In the 1980Õs, when foreign trade increased due to many technological advancements foreign currency exchanges increased dramatically. The 80Õs saw a rise in investing in Euromarkets - markets where currency was deposited in the market of a country that had a different currency.
In the late 1990Õs, the euro was introduced as a way to establish a fixed foreign market, a desire for market stability that Forex history had been longing for since World War I. The euro was the first common currency to be used in Europe. Countries in Europe that are part of the European Union began using the Euro in place of their currencies. When the Euro came on the Forex market is made an important mark in Forex history. It is now a strong currency that is in high demand.


The 2. Even though currency trading has been around since the times of ancient Egypt, which at that time the market was extremely primitive, and there were no advance trading tools as today's fundamental analysis, for example.
The first currency coins were used at the times of the pharos, and the first paper notes were then introduced by the Babylonians. Later on, the roman coin called aureus was used, which was followed by the denarius. Both coins had worldwide use, making them the first global foreign currency coins.
The Bretton Woods System (1944-1973), came after the great instability of World War II. England and other European countries were left in ruins, after the war ended, while the US's economy was left relatively stable and strong.
The USD became the prominent currency after WWII, mainly because of the war. The Dollar also became the new global reserve currency, and remained so throughout the rest of the Forex history. This was agreed upon in the Bretton Woods conference, when all of the other foreign currencies were pegged to the USD, and a new international financial network was formed.
In 1971, the Smithsonian Agreement was signed by ten of the major financial powers, but it's attempt to improve stability to the current Forex history failed.
Free Floating exchange rates came into use when the Bretton Woods agreement ended. This occurred after this international financial system was in operation for three decades in the Forex history.
During 1973, the UK, facing financial problems, floated it's currency. Other currencies began to lose value, and this led the European economies to also float their currencies.
1994 saw the first online currency trading introduced to Forex history. This had a large impact on the development of the Euro currency, and introduced a new major contender to the control of the USD in the Forex history. By 2002 the Euro became the official currency for 12 European nations, and in the past few years more nations have joined this agreement. The modern online forex history offered new options for the online trader, such as the use of margin account to leverage investments, and this is all thanks to the contribution of the internet to the forex history.
Jim Barns, Market Analyst

The Exchange Rates are powered by the Forex Portal - Forexpros.com